Election Forecasts With Twitter: How 140 Characters Reflect the Political Landscape
نویسندگان
چکیده
This study investigates whether microblogging messages on Twitter validly mirror the political landscape off-line and can be used to predict election results. In the context of the 2009 German federal election, we conducted a sentiment analysis of over 100,000 messages containing a reference to either a political party or a politician. Our results show that Twitter is used extensively for political deliberation and that the mere number of party mentions accurately reflects the election result. The tweets’ sentiment (e.g., positive and negative emotions associated with a politician) corresponds closely to voters’ political preferences. In addition, party sentiment profiles reflect the similarity of political positions between parties. We derive suggestions for further research and discuss the use of microblogging services to aggregate dispersed information.
منابع مشابه
Predicting Elections with Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal about Political Sentiment
Twitter is a microblogging website where users read and write millions of short messages on a variety of topics every day. This study uses the context of the German federal election to investigate whether Twitter is used as a forum for political deliberation and whether online messages on Twitter validly mirror offline political sentiment. Using LIWC text analysis software, we conducted a conte...
متن کامل140 Characters to Victory?: Using Twitter to Predict the UK 2015 General Election
The election forecasting 'industry' is a growing one, both in the volume of scholars producing forecasts and methodological diversity. In recent years a new approach has emerged that relies on social media and particularly Twitter data to predict election outcomes. While some studies have shown the method to hold a surprising degree of accuracy there has been criticism over the lack of consiste...
متن کاملTweeting in defeat: How candidates concede and claim victory in 140 characters
The concession and victory speech is a ritual in American politics, described by Corcoran as a “rite of capitulation,” in which both candidates at the end of an election sanction the legitimacy of the process, agree on the outcome, and start the political transition. Concession and victory speeches emerged as a distinct convention in the television era, but as web services like Twitter take on ...
متن کاملThe Politics of Budgeting: Evaluating the Effects of the Political Election Cycle on State-level Budget Forecast Errors
Budget forecasts are used by incumbent governments as a political tool to manage the elector particularly during an election cycle (Bruck and Stephan 2006). Incumbents apply budget forecasts strategically. They use short-term forecasts, which are more likely to be unbiased by political factors, annually. They rely on long-term forecasts, which are likely to be biased by political calculations, ...
متن کاملThe #BTW17 Twitter Dataset–Recorded Tweets of the Federal Election Campaigns of 2017 for the 19th German Bundestag
The German Bundestag elections are the most important elections in Germany. This dataset comprises Twitter interactions related to German politicians of the most important political parties over several months in the (pre-)phase of the German federal election campaigns in 2017. The Twitter accounts of more than 360 politicians were followed for four months. The collected data comprise a sample ...
متن کامل